Consumer Acceptance and Market Potential of Natural Organic Cosmetic Formulations in the US Market

Abstract

In the context of the accelerated internationalization of cosmetics industry chain, there is a lack of systematic empirical evidence on whether original natural organic formulations can gain recognition from US consumers. This study, using three authorized patents (hair growth, anti-wrinkle, and oil control) as intervention variables, employs a 1,200-person random conjoint experiment, Nielsen retail panel data (2021Q1-2024Q4), and system dynamics modeling to examine the acceptance and sales potential of the “Original + Natural Index ≥ 90% + Efficacy Patents” combination in the US market for the first time. The results show that a natural index of ≥ 90% increases purchase intention by 32.4%, while patent labeling brings an 18.7% premium and reduces promotional dependence by 9.4%. The optimal attribute combination is predicted to achieve a market share of 11.2%, with patent SKU sales 26.8% higher than the control group, and a cumulative NPV@8% of $196 million. Sensory testing confirms that the patented formulations significantly reduce hair loss by 19.7% and increase scalp hydration by 15.4% within four weeks. The study proposes the Clean Beauty Adoption Ladder (C-BAL) framework, integrating “Natural Index - Patent Perception - ESG Narrative” into a unified causal chain, expanding the boundary of the Theory of Planned Behavior in the field of sustainable beauty.